Consequences for Houston after the CP3-Rondo Dispute

After reviewing footage of Saturday night’s incident late in the Houston Rocket’s win over the Los Angeles Lakers, the NBA League Office has announced that Chris Paul, Rajon Rondo, and Brandon Ingram will all receive 2, 3, and 4-game suspension penalties, respectively.

Fansure provides insurance coverage for fans who buy tickets to see games where star players sit out due to rest, injury, or other reasons like suspension. We also predict how “good” a game might be based on the aggregate quality of the teams and star players involved in a given matchup using our 1-10 Fansure Index scale.

While Rondo and Ingram’s absences will undoubtedly hurt the Lakers for their next few games on the court, they won’t affect the business value of those games. In fact, Ingram and Rondo’s absence leads to a $0.25 decrease in ticket value. You can guess which Lakers star would lead to a significantly higher drop.

Now Chris Paul is another story. Any game he misses has a significant impact on the market value of Rockets games. Fansure’s analysis on his upcoming absence is shown below:

Chris Paul Suspension Impact.png

Over the two games of CP3’s suspension, the ticket value according to the index drops 21.2% ($4.54/game/seat). The total across the seating capacity adds up to $81,900 in lost value per game. Note that the Index does not capture the full emotion behind CP3 facing his former team on Sunday night. Houston’s overall team rating, which is factored into the Index, drops 11% without CP3.

Relatively speaking, Paul’s two-game suspension is a bit generous considering how unforgiving former NBA commissioner David Stern was when it came to physical altercations on the court. But given the increasing value and power individual star athletes have in this golden era, maybe it’s in the NBA’s best interest to minimize his time away from the court.